The Next $100B Market
Driverless cars. Paying customers. No, this isn't 2035.
No-one wants to miss the next massive market.
Especially when it’s right there in front of your eyes.
I’ve felt the pain before:
Smartphones: $0.5 to $155 billion (1997 → 2012)
Cloud computing: $0.5 to $412 billion (2007 → 2022)
Artificial intelligence: $0.5 to $450 billion (2011 → 2026)
I’ve been tracking this one. After last week’s piece on Tesla, I thought it prudent to bring your attention to the robotaxi market. So you don’t miss it.
Here are three global robotaxi market size forecasts:
Grand View Research: $0.6 to $147 billion at 99.1% CAGR (2025 → 2033)
Precedence Research: $2.7 to $189 billion at 52.5% CAGR (2024 → 2034)
Fortune Business Insights: $10.1 billion to $2.1 trillion at 80.8% CAGR (2025 → 2034)
Let’s anchor to the conservative end and see if the math holds up.
$150 billion in 2033 → Uber’s gross bookings are $193.5 billion.
At $25 per ride, that’s 6 billion rides per year → Uber does 13 billion.
Across the year that’s 16.5 million rides per day → Uber does 42 million.
At 25 rides per day, that’s 660,000 vehicles → Uber has 10 million drivers.
Fairly reasonable.
Btw, this is real technology today.
Here’s a quick summary from the Robotaxi “battleground”:
Waymo has a fleet of 3,000 vehicles deployed, and surpassed Lyft in mid-2025 to become the second-largest ride-hailing service in San Francisco with 25%+ market share.
Tesla has a fleet of 500 regular Tesla EVs deployed as Robotaxis in the Bay Area and Austin, and recently started running rides in Austin with no safety monitor in the car.
Tesla is starting production of the CyberCab in April, with no pedals or steering wheel and a two-seater configuration (90% of trips have two passengers).
Both companies are selling fully autonomous rides to paying customers. Now. Today.
Waymo is the #2 ride-hailing service in San Francisco. Tesla is running driverless rides in Austin. The market is here. The only question is how fast it scales.
Don’t sleep on this one (note to self).