Tesla Up 1,300% This Year
ARK’s base case says $4,600. Wall Street says $397.
Tesla is trading around $350.
ARK Invest has Tesla in another ballpark:
ARK’s 2026 bear case: $2,900 (+820%)
ARK’s 2026 base case: $4,600 (+1,310%)
ARK’s 2026 bull case: $5,800 (+1,660%)
Wall Street’s median target is $397.
Someone’s spectacularly wrong.
ARK’s entire thesis rests on one thing.
Robotaxis.
Already live in Austin. ARK models Tesla’s autonomous ride-hailing network at 60% of total enterprise value by end of 2026.
The business logic:
No drivers.
Fleet economies of scale.
Every mile becomes recurring, high-margin revenue.
ARK isn’t valuing Tesla as a car company anymore. They’re valuing it as a tech platform.
If they’re right, each mile driven compounds.
If they’re wrong, it’s a car company trading at over 300x earnings (today’s multiple).
Yet ARK’s model implies a P/E Ratio above 1,000.
That’s uncharted territory for a company of this size.
To put it plainly: you either believe autonomous driving is imminent and transformative, or you think this is crazy.
There is no moderate position.
Plus, even if ARK calls it correctly, but misses the robotaxi roll-out by even 18 months, the whole model needs to be completely rebuilt.
So what do you watch?
The city count.
Austin is live. The question is how fast it spreads.
Five cities by June 2026 → worth a closer look.
Less than five cities by June 2026 → the thesis is in trouble.
This is either the call of the decade, or a spectacular miss.