Silver’s Bull Run
They called silver from entry to exit, now what?
Silver went on a helluva run recently:
That has a lot of people asking if they missed it, or if there’s more to come.
Well, there’s a handy playbook for precious metals bull markets.
It comes from the commodities analysts Goehring & Rozencwajg who have a long track record in resource cycles. It goes like this:
Gold leads early,
Then silver takes over,
Late money piles in,
Prices move fast, and
The mania peaks.
Their trade is simple: buy silver when the gold-silver ratio hits 100:1 (silver at a historic discount to gold), and sell silver when the ratio compresses to 40:1 (discount closed, speculative premium extracted).1
Goehring & Rozencwajg called 100:1 a generational entry signal. It played out. Silver surged 362% against gold’s 169% as the ratio hit 46:1 in January 2026.
Now the silver trade is over.
Why it matters: This is what a “called” trade looks like from entry to exit. Recent price action may attract stragglers. But if Goehring & Rozencwajg’s playbook holds, the silver trade is over and they are coming late to a game that has ended.
What to watch: Speculative buying is exhausted. Second-hand supply (Gran’s silver cutlery) is hitting the market. The ratio is not at 100:1. This specific playbook says, “do nothing.” I’ll let you know when the gold/silver ratio hits 100:1 again.
Silver is found in the Earth's crust at a ratio of roughly 15:1 to 20:1 relative to gold. The 100:1 ratio flags silver trading at a disconnect relative to its geological rarity. This eventually triggers a mean reversion. Once it hits 40:1, the "rubber band" has snapped back, marking an exit point.
My view: I’ve never owned an ounce of gold or silver for investment. So I have no skin in the game. I’ll happily watch from the sidelines. What I do wonder is: if you’re not going to sell any gold or silver at recent prices, what price are you waiting for?