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Citrini Research recently laid out a scenario with one last AI-fueled melt-up before AI replaces white-collar workers, who drive 75% of discretionary spending.
If job losses outpace new roles, you get a loop:
AI improves leading to…
Fewer white-collar workers leading to…
Less consumer spending leading to…
More AI investment leading back to Step 1…
But tech has always created more jobs than it destroys, so this scenario requires us to ignore the outcome of every prior productivity wave.
Why it matters: The outcome will determine your career choices, the size of your mortgage, and your investment portfolio for years to come.
What to watch: Jobless claims filed by white-collar workers are the canary in the coalmine:
If jobless claims stay <300k → ignore this.
If jobless claims spike >300k → this might get real.
My view: AI is moving faster than any technology wave. Sure tech has always created more jobs than it destroys, but nobody talks about the timing. The gap between job losses and creation could disrupt a system many see as more fragile than ever. That’s with today’s tech. If AI sets its own guardrails and troubleshoots itself, Citrini's scenario might be conservative.
What do you think?