The Next U.S. President
The simple logic that predicts the 2028 election
Doomberg is one of Substack’s sharpest contrarian voices. Their whole thing: follow logic wherever it leads.
Here’s where it led them:
Gavin Newsom will be the 48th President of the United States.
Just under half of America got furious reading that sentence. The other half-and-a-bit quietly nodded.
The argument is ridiculously simple.
Trump beat Harris by 1.5 points. A razor thin margin.
Now ask two questions:
1) Is Newsom 1.5 points better than Harris?
Harris was a historically weak candidate. Newsom is a trained political athlete. Fluent in media. He’s charismatic, a sharp debater and has big money behind him.
2) Is the Republican nominee 1.5 points worse than Trump?
Trump’s superpower is his ability to generate turnout through sheer personal frenzy. Millions of people voted for him. Not the party, not the platform. Him.
That frenzy doesn’t transfer. No Republican in the 2028 field comes close.
Two variables. Both moving in the same direction.
A 1.5-point lead (that’s diminishing) doesn’t survive a tougher opponent.
It’s a profoundly optimistic read for Democrats. It’s also dangerous if it breeds complacency.
So what do you watch?
Newsom has to: 1) win the nomination, then 2) win the election.
Start with the nomination. Watch Newsom’s approval rating outside California.
Polling above Harris with those voters → nomination is his to lose.
Polling below Harris with those voters → gets complicated fast.