$30 Oil is Coming
Supply is growing. Costs are falling. Geopolitics is noise.
J.P. Morgan called $60 oil at the start of 2026.
Their logic was clean: supply growing at roughly three times the pace of consumption.
Then conflict in Iran blew up the timeline.
Prices spiked over $100.
Now Doomberg has taken the same logic and run it further to predict $30 oil within five years.
Two reasons:
Crises create gluts. Disruption attracts capital. Capital builds supply. Supply crashes prices. It’s happened after every major oil shock in history.
Oil companies are technology powerhouses. This one’s underrated. The majors relentlessly apply tech so extraction costs per barrel keep falling.
Same direction as J.P. Morgan. Just lower and later.
It’s a call worth watching if you’re exposed to oil prices or eyeing an EV.
So what do you watch?
Open the IEA Oil Market Report each month.
Global observed oil inventories keep growing → on track.
Global observed oil inventories start declining → off track.
In 2025, global stocks increased by a staggering 477 million barrels, the biggest annual build since 2020. That’s not a blip. That’s a trend. And our baseline.
If stocks start building year over year, the $30 call is on track.